Methodology

What are Last Two Minute Reports?

The NBA publishes official Last Two Minute (L2M) reports for every game that is within five points in the final two minutes. These reports review every play and assess whether referees made the correct call. Each play is graded as one of five decisions:

• CC — Correct Call
• IC— Incorrect Call (a foul/violation was called but shouldn't have been)
• CNC — Correct Non-Call
• INC— Incorrect Non-Call (a foul/violation should have been called but wasn't)
• N/A — Not applicable

Clutch Refs analyzes every IC and INC decision to determine which teams benefit from and which teams are hurt by officiating errors.

Scoring Formula

Each incorrect call is scored using four factors multiplied together:

score = call_type_weight × time_multiplier × context_multiplier × decision_modifier

The resulting score is applied as a benefit to the advantaged team and a penalty to the disadvantaged team. Because context multipliers differ based on whether a team won or lost, the benefit and penalty are not always equal — scores are asymmetric.

Call Type Weights

Higher-impact call types receive greater weight:

Time Multipliers

Errors closer to the end of the game carry more weight:

Context Multipliers

Errors in close games matter more, and losing teams are affected more than winning teams. The multiplier depends on the final score margin and whether the team won or lost:

This asymmetry means the same error produces different scores for each team involved.

Decision Modifiers

Incorrect Calls are weighted slightly higher than Incorrect Non-Calls because a wrong whistle directly changes possession or awards free throws:

Worked Example

A shooting foul is incorrectly called (IC) at 00:18 remaining. The final score margin is 2 points. The disadvantaged team lost the game; the committing team won.

What the Score Means